Creatix / March 13, 2026
For decades, investors viewed Berkshire Hathaway as the ultimate defensive fortress. When markets turned volatile, the company led by Warren Buffett was expected to hold up better than the broader market—sometimes even rising while others fell. But during the most recent bout of geopolitical turbulence and market volatility, something unusual has happened.
Berkshire has not outperformed the market.
In fact, over the past couple of weeks, Berkshire’s shares have slipped slightly more than the broader market benchmark, the S&P 500.
For a company long considered the “safe harbor” of American capitalism, that raises an uncomfortable question:
Has Berkshire lost its mojo?
The Expectation: Berkshire as the Crisis Stock
Historically, Berkshire Hathaway has been built to withstand storms.
The company holds a mix of:
massive insurance operations (GEICO and others)
energy infrastructure
railroads, including BNSF Railway
large equity stakes in blue-chip companies
tens of billions of dollars in cash reserves
This structure has traditionally allowed Berkshire to perform well when markets stumble.
During many past downturns, investors assumed Berkshire would:
fall less than the market, or
even rise as a defensive refuge.
That expectation is deeply tied to the reputation of Buffett himself.
For more than half a century, Buffett built a mythos around Berkshire as the ultimate long-term value machine.
The Reality This Time
Yet during the current market stress linked to geopolitical tensions and energy price volatility, Berkshire has not behaved like the crisis hedge many investors expected.
Instead:
The S&P 500 has dropped roughly around 2% over the past couple of weeks.
Berkshire shares have declined slightly more, around 2–2.5% over the same period.
In other words, Berkshire underperformed the market, albeit slightly.
That may not seem dramatic. But symbolically, it matters.
Because many investors assumed the opposite outcome.
The Buffett Factor
Part of Berkshire’s mystique has always been tied to one man: Warren Buffett.
Buffett’s reputation is not just about stock picking.
It is about capital allocation during chaos.
During past crises he famously:
injected capital into banks during the financial crisis
negotiated preferred stock deals with extraordinary terms
used Berkshire’s massive cash pile to buy assets at distressed prices
Markets believed that when panic arrived, Buffett would deploy capital aggressively and create new opportunities.
But today, investors are increasingly asking:
What happens when Buffett is no longer the one making those calls?
Even though Berkshire has a succession plan and highly capable managers, the psychological effect of Buffett’s absence could be enormous.
The company’s culture, discipline, and reputation were built around him.
Without that central figure, markets may no longer assign Berkshire the same “crisis premium.”
Structural Changes in the Market
Another reason Berkshire may struggle to outperform during modern crises is that markets themselves have changed.
Several structural shifts matter:
1. Tech Dominance
The S&P 500 is now dominated by technology giants whose earnings can remain resilient during geopolitical tension.
In earlier decades, cyclical industries played a larger role in the index.
Today, tech’s weight means the market may fall less sharply in many crises.
2. Berkshire’s Industrial Exposure
Berkshire still owns businesses tied to the real economy:
railroads
manufacturing
utilities
energy infrastructure
These sectors are more sensitive to economic slowdowns than software or cloud platforms.
That can make Berkshire less defensive than many assume.
3. The Size Problem
Berkshire has become enormous.
With a market value approaching $1 trillion, it is harder to generate outsized returns.
Opportunities that once moved the needle now barely register.
Buffett himself has acknowledged that size is Berkshire’s biggest enemy when it comes to beating the market.
A Temporary Blip or a Deeper Shift?
It is too early to declare that Berkshire’s golden era is over.
Over long periods, the company still has:
extraordinary operating businesses
massive free cash flow
disciplined capital allocation
one of the strongest balance sheets in the world
But investors are beginning to confront a reality that once seemed unimaginable:
Berkshire may no longer be the automatic winner during crises.
The Bigger Question
Perhaps the most important question is not whether Berkshire underperformed the S&P 500 over a couple of weeks.
It is whether the Buffett premium—the belief that Berkshire possesses a unique advantage during market turmoil—will survive in the decades ahead.
If that perception fades, Berkshire could gradually become something different:
not a legendary market-beater, but simply one of the world’s largest and most stable conglomerates.
Still powerful.
Still profitable.
But no longer magical.
Now you know it.
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