Creatix / February 12, 2025
When it comes to job creation in the US, there are very good years, very bad years, and anemic years like 2025. Supposedly, 2026 started strong in January, but it is hard to trust the January numbers knowing that there are estimates subject to revision. The revision in 2025 was quite dramatic. Initially, it had been estimated that the economy had added +584,000 jobs (as initially published). This was revised down to only 181,000 jobs (seasonally adjusted).
Yes, that means that 403,000 fewer net jobs were created in 2025 than initially reported. This is an almost incredible and unprecedented 69% downward correction.
To be sure, we have had worst years in the US in the last 25 years. When recessions hit, net job losses hit the millions. Below are the numbers from 2000 through 2025. The list shows how many jobs were added (gained) or lost each year since 2000. Take a good look:
2000: +1,948,000
2001: −1,763,000
2002: −535,000
2003: +112,000
2004: +2,097,000
2005: +2,525,000
2006: +2,100,000
2007: +1,143,000
2008: −3,553,000
2009: −5,051,000
2010: +1,058,000
2011: +1,735,000
2012: +2,242,000
2013: +2,338,000
2014: +3,105,000
2015: +2,724,000
2016: +2,243,000
2017: +2,179,000
2018: +2,314,000
2019: +2,096,000
2020: −9,371,000
2021: +6,449,000
2022: +4,502,000
2023: +2,604,000
2024: +2,036,000
2025: +181,000 (revised down from 584,000 previously reported)
What stands out historically
• Strong expansions: 2004–2007 and 2013–2019
• Historic collapse: 2020 (pandemic shock)
• Record rebound: 2021
• Cooling phase: 2022 → 2024 gradual slowdown
• Sharp deceleration: 2025 extremely weak compared to prior years
2025 was one of the weakest job growth years not associated with a recession.
Here is a polished article built from your premise, structured, analytical, and grounded in the data:
January’s 130,000 Jobs: Strong Start or Statistical Mirage?
At first glance, 130,000 new jobs in January 2026 sounds like a solid start to the year. Headlines suggest resilience. Markets sold off today supposedly because the "strong" job market will make interest cuts more difficult.
But context matters.
Just months ago, the official tally for all of 2025 was revised down to a mere +181,000 jobs total for the entire year. That means the economy averaged roughly 15,000 jobs per month in 2025 after revisions. Nearly every month of that year was corrected downward. The annual benchmark wiped out hundreds of thousands of previously reported jobs.
So when January alone suddenly delivers +130,000 — nearly as many jobs as the whole prior year — skepticism is reasonable. Trusting that estimate to hold true or be correct sounds dumbly unreasonable.
The Shadow of 2025
The key issue in 2025 was not a single bad month. It was a structural revision. The Bureau of Labor Statistics benchmarked payroll levels against administrative tax records and found that employment had been overstated by roughly 0.6% of the total level. That may sound small, but it translated into hundreds of thousands of “phantom” jobs.
When that happens, confidence in the first print naturally weakens.
The same survey machinery that produced the overestimates in 2025 is still producing the first estimate in January 2026. That does not mean January is wrong. It means it is preliminary. It means it could be as wrong as in 2025. At least that is what it means to us.
One Month Does Not Make a Trend
Even assuming that the 130,000 is correct, which we completely doubt, in a soft labor market, volatility could produce such an occasional strong mini rebound in a month. It would not automatically signal reacceleration or a strong labor market. It may represent:
Seasonal adjustment noise (January is historically volatile)
Concentrated hiring in a few sectors (health care and social assistance often carry the load)
Statistical rebound after prior weakness
Normal month-to-month variation around a flat trend
Bad data and poor estimate
If 2025 averaged roughly +15,000 per month, a +130,000 reading is large relative to that baseline — but not impossible. What matters is what comes next.
Conditions on the Ground
Perhaps the strongest argument for caution is qualitative: many observers do not report a dramatically stronger hiring environment in early 2026 compared to 2025.
Business hiring plans remain measured. Government is practically not hiring. Small businesses are not booming. Interest rates are still elevated relative to the post-2010 era. Cyclical sectors like manufacturing and finance are not showing explosive momentum. Federal employment has even contracted in recent months.
When macro data and lived experience diverge, patience is warranted.
The Proper Way to Interpret January
The disciplined approach is simple:
Watch the three-month average, not a single print.
Watch revisions — January will be revised twice.
Watch breadth — are gains broad across industries or narrow?
Watch hours worked and labor force participation for confirmation.
If February and March confirm January’s strength, the story may change a little but we doubt it.
If January is revised down and the next prints disappoint, then 2026 may indeed resemble 2025 — an economy that is technically growing but barely generating net employment.
A Reasonable Base Case
Given the dramatic slowdown in 2025, the most rational baseline forecast for 2026 is not boom, but low positive growth with risk to the downside.
It would not be surprising if 2026 ultimately proves to be:
Another anemic job growth year
Or even weaker than 2025 if broader demand slows
But it is equally premature to declare January a statistical illusion.
The truth is more nuanced:
January’s +130,000 reduces the probability of immediate labor market deterioration.
It does not yet prove renewed strength.
The Bigger Lesson
The events of 2025 remind us of an important principle:
Economic data are estimates, not revelations. They are revised. They are benchmarked. They are seasonal-adjusted. They are modeled. They are a make believe to some extent.
Believing the trend instead of the headline is not pessimism. It is discipline.
2026 may surprise to the upside.
It may drift sideways.
It may soften further.
No one knows because the future has not been created yet. Now, based on what we are seeing, which is technology-fueled earnings, we do not have any reason to believe in a strong labor market until things deteriorate significantly, interest rates come down, and the Government keeps printing money to make everyone happy. The US economy is more dependent on the government than we think, but that's a story for another post.
Stay tuned.
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