Creatix / February 5, 2026
COVID Changed Food Prices Forever
Ask almost anyone how grocery prices feel compared to 2019 and you’ll hear the same answer: “Everything’s way more expensive.” The COVID-19 pandemic didn’t just raise prices. It established a new order in the food industry.
Before COVID: Cheap, Predictable, Invisible
In December 2019, food prices were boring. That was the point.
Supply chains were optimized for efficiency, not resilience. Most Americans never thought about fertilizer shortages, global shipping lanes, labor availability, or weather in Spain affecting olive oil. Food was background noise.
COVID ended that illusion.
The First Shock: 2020–2021
When the pandemic hit, food inflation didn’t explode immediately. Instead:
Processing plants shut down or slowed
Farm labor became scarce
Shipping containers didn't move on time
Governments injected trillions of dollars into demand against limited supply
This didn’t just raise prices—it changed consumption patterns. Staples, shelf-stable goods, and at-home cooking inputs suddenly mattered more than ever.
The Second Shock: 2022–2024
This is when prices really moved.
Some items rose modestly, resetting higher and staying there:
Flour (+28%)
Butter (+31%)
Chicken breast (+32%)
Packaged cookies (+33%)
Others became structurally expensive:
Potato chips (+40%)
Rice (+45%)
Ground beef (+45%)
Once these prices moved up, they never really came back down. This has been the classic post-COVID inflation behavior: three steps up and maybe just one down if at all.
The Commodity Chaos Tier
COVID didn’t just disrupt factories. It collided with weather events, trade disruptions, and energy shocks—turning some foods into volatility machines.
Coffee rose roughly +50–60% by late 2024.
It never doubled, but repeated supply shocks made it feel relentless. Prices leveled in 2025, but far above 2019.Vegetable oils jumped about +55–65%, driven by global commodity disruptions. Prices cooled slightly, then plateaued—higher forever.
Sugar climbed about +68% until it began to edge down in 2025.
These foods exposed a key lesson of the pandemic era: price increases in global commodities are stickier than anticipated and don’t revert quickly.
The Near-Doublers That Rewired Consumer Psychology
A few foods crossed a psychological threshold.
Soft drinks (12-packs, including Coca-Cola) rose about +88–90%.
Not technically doubled—but close enough that shoppers felt it viscerally. Promotions returned in 2025, signaling leveling, not reversal.Frozen concentrated orange juice surged roughly +84% and never meaningfully came down.
Olive oil (not a CPI item) nearly doubled at its peak due to Mediterranean crop failures layered on post-COVID supply fragility.
These are some of the items some people point to when they say, “Some groceries doubled.”
And they’re almost right.
The Outlier That Proved a Point: Eggs
Eggs broke the system.
Prices surged about +170% by the 2024 peak
Then collapsed in 2025 as supply normalized
Eggs showed something rare: inflation can reverse—but only when supply is fast, local, and flexible. Most food markets don’t work that way. Also, there were specific reasons behind the 170% increase not necessarily tied to COVID such as a bird flu outbreak.
Why Prices Didn’t Go Back Down
COVID taught companies, suppliers, and retailers a powerful lesson:
Consumers will adapt to higher prices if the shock is universal.
Once prices reset:
Packaging shrank
Promotions replaced rollbacks
“Stability” replaced “cheap” as the goal
By 2025–2026, relief no longer meant lower prices. It meant prices stopping their climb.
The Real Legacy of COVID: Food Inflation
The pandemic didn’t just cause inflation. It revealed how fragile—and how sticky—food pricing really is.
Prices rise quickly in crises
They fall slowly, if at all
People adapt
Plateaus become the new normal
That’s why grocery shopping still feels off even as headline inflation cools.
COVID changed the food industry. Americans adapted. 2019 prices are never coming back.
Top Ways to Save Money on Groceries in 2026
1) Buy ingredients, not brands, and make your own food for fun
Shift spending from name brands to quality ingredients at good prices.
Every branded convenience item carries a “post-COVID premium.”
Enjoy preparing your own food. For example, buy avocados instead of packaged guacamole; buy vegetables instead of premade salads; by meats instead of prepared meals.
2) Treat promotions as the new discounts
Buy one, get one free; weekly specials; and coupons are ways to cope against high prices.
Only buy non essential items when on promotion.
If it’s not on sale this week, skip it. Never pay "retail". This alone can cut 15–25%.
3) Shrink meat portions, not meals
Meat inflation stayed sticky.
Stretch proteins with:
Beans, lentils, eggs
+ smaller meat portions
By the way, just one meatless dinner per week saves more than most people realize.
4) Use frozen vegetables aggressively
Frozen vegetables are:
Cheaper
Just as nutritious
Zero spoilage risk
This is one of the highest ROI swaps in modern grocery shopping.
5) Switch stores by category, not loyalty
No store is cheapest for everything anymore.
Example strategy:
Warehouse club: staples, oil, eggs, frozen food
Discount grocer: produce, dairy
Regular grocery store: sale items only
Loyalty is expensive. Strategy is key.
6) Buy store brands—but selectively
Store brands are best for quality products that are nearly identical to brand name ones, but sold for less.
7) Stop impulse spending at the register
Walk in with a list. Leave fast.
8) Reframe “waste” as inflation leakage
Food waste now costs more than ever.
Plan meals before shopping, not after.
Freeze leftovers immediately if you won’t eat them in 48 hours.
9) Track just one number: the bottom line
Don’t track deals. The road to financial ruin is paved with "great" deals
Track weekly grocery spend per person.
Stay on budget.
10) Accept the new normal—and adapt
2026 grocery savings isn’t about waiting for prices to fall.
It’s about:
Buying less convenience
Timing purchases
Reducing waste
Eating simpler and healthier meals more often
That’s how households can win after inflation.
The mindset shift that matters most
Pre-COVID grocery shopping was passive.
Post-COVID grocery shopping must be strategic.
Once you accept that, saving money becomes much easier and can even be fun. Don't suffer through it. Make it a hobby and enjoy it.
Now you know it.
www.creatix.one (creating meaning)
consultingbooks.com (you owe them to yourself)
Comments
Post a Comment