Creatix / July 8, 2025
In the unfolding global chessboard of power politics, one question has left analysts intrigued: Why is Vladimir Putin seemingly disobeying or disregarding Donald Trump, despite appearing to favor him over other U.S. leaders? Game theory, the science of strategic decision-making, may offer a compelling explanation.
Let’s break it down.
🧠 Game Theory 101: Rational Players in a Repeated Game
In game theory, global leaders are modeled as “rational actors” . These are individuals who pursue strategies that maximize their long-term payoff. The interaction between Trump and Putin can be viewed as a “repeated game,” not a one-time play.
Each leader makes moves while considering:
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The other's likely reaction
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The long-term outcomes of cooperation vs. defection
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Domestic constraints and payoffs
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The credibility of threats and promises
From a game theory standpoint, Putin isn’t simply a “rogue agent” ignoring Trump. He’s a player making cold, calculated moves.
🧩 The Payoff Matrix: Cooperation vs. Defection
Imagine a basic payoff matrix like the classic Prisoner’s Dilemma. In this case:
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Cooperate (Putin does Trump’s bidding) → short-term harmony but long-term loss of strategic autonomy.
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Defect (Putin pursues his own agenda) → short-term tension, but possibly long-term gains.
Putin is playing for regional dominance, NATO disruption, and influence in the world. Surrendering to Trump's wishes limits his leverage and credibility. That shifts the optimal strategy toward selective disobedience.
⏳ Trump’s Credibility Problem: Cheap Talk vs. Binding Commitments
Game theory emphasizes the difference between “cheap talk” (non-binding promises) and “credible commitments.” Trump's unpredictable game style may increase his leverage against some, but reduce it against Putin.
From Putin’s perspective, obeying Trump now — by halting aggression or making concessions — offers little guarantee of future reward.
So Putin defects. That is the optimal play.
💼 The Audience Cost Factor
Another game theory concept at play is audience costs. This is the political price a leader pays for backing down in front of their constituents.
If Putin were to fall in line with Trump’s preferences, it might appear as capitulation to an American and to the entire West. That would be a huge reputational loss for Putin in front of Russian elites, the military, and his supportive nationalist base.
Instead, defying Trump signals independence, enhances domestic legitimacy, and positions Putin as a global power player untethered to any one Western actor even the Trump man.
♟ Strategic Ambiguity: Keeping Trump Guessing
In repeated games, one successful tactic is strategic ambiguity — keeping your opponent uncertain and guessing what might be your next move. Putin may be sending mixed signals to Trump to avoid being taken for granted or manipulated.
By disobeying or diverging from Trump’s expectations, Putin:
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Keeps Trump on edge
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Extracts better deals
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Reinforces the idea that Russian interests come first
🌍 A Multi-Player Game: Not Just Putin vs. Trump
Let’s not forget: this is a multi-player game. China, the EU, NATO, Ukraine, Iran, and even Russian oligarchs are all actors in the broader game tree. Putin must balance multiple players and coalitions, not just Trump.
He may like Trump’s weakening of NATO or America’s turn to autocracy, but he still has to hedge. Game theory tells us that overcommitting to one unreliable partner can be more dangerous than going it alone.
🎯 Conclusion: Rational Disobedience
Putin’s defiance of Trump isn’t irrational. According to game theory, it’s strategic disobedience. This is highly predictable as the optimal move of a player maximizing long-term payoffs in an unpredictable global game.
Even “strongmen” are primates playing by instinct. So long as Putin wants to make Russia great again, he cannot capitulate to the American wanting to make America great again. Something's gotta give.
Now you know it.
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