Creatix / July 14, 2025
As our President considers placing 100% tariffs on Russian imports, the political theater is supposed to indicate applying pressure on Putin to stop the war in Ukraine. Any such tariffs are unlikely to be effective against Putin and his Kremlin. In fact, they may do the opposite—add fuel to the fire and embolden Putin, reinforce his narrative of Western hostility, and unite his base.
🎯 The Myth of Economic Leverage Through Tariffs
Tariffs work when a country is economically dependent on access to the foreign market being closed off. But in the case of Russia–U.S. trade, that leverage simply doesn’t exist:
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The U.S. imports less than 1% of its total goods from Russia.
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Russian exports to the U.S. have already collapsed by over 90% since the 2022 Ukraine invasion.
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What’s left? A trickle of uranium, metals, and specialty chemicals. These items are more important to the US as buyer and importer than to Russia as seller and exporter.
Putin's 2025 Russia isn’t the 1990s-era Russia looking for integration into global markets. Today’s Kremlin has pivoted toward economic autarky and tighter partnerships with China, India, Turkey, and Iran. Tariffs from the U.S. are already priced in—politically and economically. Not even a total embargo would move the needle in favor of U.S. strategic interests.
🧱 Putin’s Fortress Economy Strategy
Since 2014, after the annexation of Crimea, Putin has been building what Russian economists call a "fortress economy". This is an economy designed to survive sanctions, capital flight, and Western isolation. Key features include:
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Reserves in gold and yuan, not dollars or euros
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A largely self-sufficient agricultural sector
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Tight currency controls and capital regulations
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State control over key sectors like energy, banking, and defense
While Western consumers worry about inflation and supply chains, the Kremlin simply redirects trade through non-Western intermediaries, often at a discount, but without shortage of buyers. In essence, Putin already did what Trump dreams of doing here.
🔥 Fueling Putin’s Domestic Propaganda Machine
Rather than hurting Putin’s position, tariffs hand him a gift: a new talking point.
In Kremlin-controlled media, U.S. tariffs don’t signal punishment. They confirm the West's hostility and imperialism, justifying and honoring Russia’s "special path". Economic restrictions are spun as badges of honor and proof that Russia is standing strong against "Western imperialism." Suffering is the path to salvation (and to political domination).
More isolation? More control. More Western aggression? More domestic consolidation. Tariffs may be designed to weaken Putin’s hand, but they often strengthen his grip on power.
Never forget. In this show, Putin is the master and our beloved Trump is the apprentice.
Strategic Misfire: Tariffs Are Not Sanctions
It’s important to note the difference: tariffs are taxes, not bans. Unlike targeted sanctions that freeze assets or cut off supply chains, tariffs simply make goods more expensive. But when your exports are already embargoed or re-routed through Asia, what’s left to tax?
The Kremlin isn’t exporting PlayStations or fast fashion. It's exporting raw materials and energy—stuff the world still needs, even if it comes at a huge mark-up or it comes through a middleman.
A Warning Worth Repeating
As we have argued many times, by clinging to tariffs as a tool of geopolitical punishment, the U.S. risks overestimating its leverage and underestimating Putin’s resilience. A 100% tariff on already-diminished trade flows is a symbol, not a strategy.
And worse—it may backfire, pushing Russia deeper into the arms of China, doubling down on anti-Western alliances, and fueling the very authoritarian narrative it’s meant to disrupt.
As our President pretends to use tariffs as the American Boogeyman, nations and investors around the world are learning to disregard the Yankee threats and move on without the United States.
Trump's Old Boogeyman Isn't Scary Anymore; It's Embarrassing
In Trump's 79-year old brain, tariffs are the economic boogeyman. They are supposed to be a threat to force American domination. Tariffs scared temporarily long-time allies like Canada and Mexico who had grown accustomed and dependent on North American trade agreements. The tariff scarecrow worked temporarily against China, which became dependent on global trade to keep its citizens busy while stealing intellectual property. But to Putin, and many others around the world, tariffs are political capital seeding their nationalistic and isolationist dreams. After all, those are the two main precursors for totalitarianism. No wonder they are part of our political agenda. In the end, it is clear that what we want is to make America a little version of the kleptocratic Russia. It would not be surprising that Putin orchestrated the tariff movement on the board of the route to totalitarianism chess board.
If the U.S. truly wanted to pressure Russia into ending the war in Ukraine, it would expand NATO and arm Ukraine for a forever war. The prospects of a "forever war" would not dissuade Putin and the Kremlin, but would erode popular support. We're all monkeys; and no one wants to be at war forever. Pretending to pressure Putin and his regime with tariffs and economic sanctions is a symbolic gesture and a move welcomed by Putin and all other anti-American autocrats worldwide. In a post-globalized world, autocrats don’t fear isolation and American retaliation, they thrive in it. It's embarrassing to see our over reliance on tariffs. However, their point is to end globalization, force us into isolation, and bring heavy-handed totalitarianism. That's what the majority of voters seem to want and that is what we will get. No wonder applications for foreign passports and foreign visa applications are at record highs. Those who can are getting ready to leave the country if necessary. The rest of us are entertained by deportations and scared by the tariff boogeyman.
Now you know it.
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