Are you ready for a Trumpcession?

February 17, 2025

Is your portfolio ready for a Trumpression?

Some say that the two main engines of economic growth in the United States are immigration and federal spending. President Trump is cutting both. If we are lucky, other engines such as innovation and lower taxes will carry the day and propel us forward. If we are unlucky, stagnation could set in, leading to a recession (a Trumpcession), or even a depression (Trumression).

President Trump is massively increasing unemployment of federal workers. Under the advice of African entrepreneur Elon Musk, the President has fired hundreds of thousands of federal employees. That is an immediate and direct increase in unemployment, which should be noticeable even if very slightly.

President Trump is also massively deporting illegal aliens. That will not have a direct impact on unemployment figures because the detainees and deportees will not file for unemployment benefits. However, deportations may have a significantly adverse economic impact on several industries and communities nationwide. Deportations may lead to a domino effect of economic slowdown. Home Depot contractors are already experiencing reduced lines at the counters because there are noticeably less construction contractors for small home and business repair jobs.

Innovation and tax cuts may spark job growth that could upset the economic impacts of massive layoffs and deportations. We will see.

In the meantime, make sure that you prepare your portfolio for a potential recession later this year, which could turn into a depression by 2026. In past posts, we have discussed common financial planning tips to withstand economic downturns. We will revisit them in the future. Stay tuned.

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