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Is it time to short TESLA stock (Ticker: TSLA)

December 6, 2024

Is it time to short TESLA stock (Ticker: TSLA):

Tesla's stock has been on fire since Donald Trump won the elections. The financial markets are betting that Elon Musk and Tesla will profit greatly during the Second Coming of Trump. Most professionals believe (or are selling the belief) that Tesla's stock will continue rising forever. While it may be a little too to begin shoring Tesla, brave contrarian speculators may benefit from putting Tesla on their radars for shorting opportunities. Nothing lasts forever. What goes up, comes down. Neither Trump nor Musk are gods. Both Trump and Musk are simple primates and mortals. Both men are up today for sure, and both will come down eventually. Gravity is a bitch.

Trump Mania Won't Last Forever

What we are seeing is crazy and perhaps unprecedented in our history. The U.S. economy is doing amazingly well in all regards. Part of the reason is that our economy is a fully diversified and completely globalized economy with many significant free trade agreements and very porous--if not virtually open-- borders. The other part is science, technology, engineering, and math (STEM) prowess, with the most prominent of all new revolutionary technologies being artificial intelligence (AI).  

Along came a senior citizen, science-denier, demagogue populist promising to make America great again. However, the country is already great. The country is already great as it is. It's not perfect because perfection doesn't exist. And no, god doesn't exist either outside of our collective imagination. The country is great precisely because we have mastered pluralism and because we have walked away from what Trump reminisces from his old days. 

Elon Musk himself thought that Trump was too old. During the Republican primaries Musk endorsed DeSantis and was basically on the Anti-Trump Movement (ATM),  the Never Trump, and the Anyone But Trump camp. After Trump won the primaries, Musk gradually changed course and began buying Trump with donations and endorsements. The investment paid off super well.    

Tesla's stock price has more than doubled in price since Musk began to endorse Trump. Tesla's stock has gained an incredible 120% in the past 6 months. Elon Musk has more than doubled his net worth in 6 months since getting in bed metaphorically with Trump. Just today, Musk added $1I billion to his fortune, which is currently estimated at $355 billion. 

Trump's fortune is estimated at about $3 billion. With Musk gaining Trump's fortune every 8 hours, Trump should be asking for a commission really soon. Once Trump becomes President he will be essentially immune from criminal prosecution for bribery tied to official acts. Trump and his associates will surely look for ways for the South African oligarch to pay his dues. 

It will be interesting to see how the bromance between Trump and Musk evolves over the next months. Both men are difficult and of nonstandard mental health. With them, we're in crazy hands going for a crazy ride. Musk will be working for Trump and become a government bureaucrat in charge of a new government agency related to government efficiency. In the real world that would be seen as a significant distraction that would significantly jeopardize Tesla. However, in the Trump World that we are living for now in the United States of Trump that is seen as a positive for the Tesla stock.

Make no mistake. Tesla is a great company just like the United States is a great country. Elon Musk is a successful immigrant, the most successful immigrant in the world. Musk would run for President if he could. He cannot because he is not a natural born American. Elon Musk is a South African immigrant who became a U.S. citizen after moving to the United States from Canada. Anyways, Elon Musk is a great business leader, but is not immortal and is not immune to gravity. Elon will fall. Tesla will fall. 

Now you know it. 

 

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