Will the stock market do better under Trump than under Biden? Was the stock market better under Trump than under Obama?Has the stock market performed better under Biden than under Trump?

July 17, 2024

Will the stock market do better under Trump than under Biden? No one knows. Biden's first term in office is not over yet. The future has not been created yet. 

Was the stock market better under Trump than under Obama? It depends on how you look at it. If compared based on Inauguration Day for four years, the stock market performed 2% better under Obama. From the respective Inauguration Day to the next, the S&P 500 returned 69% under Obama's first term, and 67% under Trump's first term. If compared based on average annual return, the stock market performed 2% better under Trump than under Obama. The average S&P 500 annual return under Trump was 16.7% whereas the average S&P 500 annual return under Obama was 14.7%. 

Has the stock market performed better under Biden than under Trump? No, it hasn't. The stock market performed better under Trump than how it has performed under Biden so far. From Inauguration Day through July 16, 2024, the S&P 500 returned 49% under Biden whereas it returned 67% under Trump's first term. The average S&P 500 annual return under Trump was 16.7% whereas the average S&P 500 annual return under Biden has been 13.4%. 

PART I. Trump's Presidency

How was the stock market during Trump's presidency?

Trump's First Term (2016 - 2020) Stock Market (S&P 500) Return

55% S&P 500 return in Trump's first term, from Election Day 2016 through Election Day 2020.

• Using the Standard and Poor 500 (S&P 500) as the measuring stick and election day as the benchmark, the stock market returned 55% under Trump. On November 8, 2016, Election Day 2016, the S&P 500 closed at 2,140. On November 3, 2020, Election Day 2020, the S&P 500 closed at 3,310.  

67% S&P 500 return in Trump's first term, from Inauguration Day 2017 through Inauguration Day 2021

• Using the S&P 500 as the measuring stick and Inauguration Day as the benchmark, the stock market returned 67% under Trump. On January 20, 2017, Inauguration Day 2017, the S&P 500 closed at 2,271. On January 20, 2021, Inauguration Day 2021, the S&P 500 closed at 3,799. 

Average 16.7% annual S&P 500 return in Trump's first term

• 2017 21.61
• 2018  -4.23
• 2019  31.21% 
• 2020  18.02%

PART II. Obama's Presidency

How was the stock market during Obama's presidency?

Obama's First Term (2008 - 2012)  Stock Market (S&P 500) Return

41% S&P 500 return in Obama's first term, from Election Day 2008 - 2012

• Using the S&P 500 as the measuring stick and Election Day as the benchmark, the stock market returned 41% under Obama's first term. On November 4, 2008, Election Day 2008, the S&P 500 closed at 1,006. On November 6, 2012, Election Day 2012, the S&P 500 closed at 1,417. 

69% S&P 500 return in Obama's first term, from Inauguration Day 2009 - 2013  

• Using the S&P 500 as the measuring stick and Inauguration Day as the benchmark, the stock market returned 68% under Obama's first term. On January 20, 2009, Inauguration Day 2009, the S&P 500 closed at 886. On January 21, 2013, Inauguration Day 2013, the S&P 500 closed at 1,486. 

Average 14.7% annual S&P 500 return during Obama's first term. 

• 2009  25.94% 
• 2010  14.82% 
• 2011  2.10% 
• 2012  15.89% 

Obama's Second Term (2012 - 2016) Stock Market (S&P 500) Return

51% S&P 500 return in Obama's second term, from Election Day 2012 through 2016

• Using the S&P 500 as the measuring stick and Election Day as the benchmark, the stock market returned 51% under Obama's second term. On November 6, 2012, Election Day 2012, the S&P 500 closed at 1,417. On November 8, 2016, Election Day 2016, the S&P 500 closed at 2,140. That gives the 51% return.

53% S&P 500 return in Obama's second term, from Inauguration Day 2013 through 2016. 

• Using the S&P 500 as the measuring stick and Inauguration Day as the benchmark, the stock market returned 53% under Obama's second term. On January 21, 2013, Inauguration Day 2013, the S&P 500 closed at 1,486. On January 20, 2017, Inauguration Day 2017, the S&P 500 closed at 2,271

Average 14.7% annual S&P 500 return during Obama's second term

• 2013  32.15%
• 2014  13.52% 
• 2015  1.38% 
• 2016 11.77

PART III. Biden's presidency

How has the stock market performed during Biden's presidency?

71% S&P 500 return in Biden's term, from Election Day 2020 through July 16, 2024

• Using the S&P 500 as the measuring stick and Election Day as the benchmark, the stock market has returned 71% under Biden through July 16, 2024. On November 3, 2020, Election Day 2020, through July 16, 2024. On November 3, 2020, the S&P 500 closed at 3310. On July 16, 2024, the S&P 500 closed at 5667. 

49% S&P 500 return in Biden's term, from Inauguration Day 2021 through July 16, 2024

• Using the S&P 500 as the measuring stick and Inauguration Day as the benchmark, the stock market returned 49% under Biden through the all-time record high of July 16, 2024. On January 20, 2021, Inauguration Day 2021, the S&P 500 closed at 3,799. On July 16, 2024, the S&P 500 closed at 5667. 

Average 13.4% S&P 500 annual return under Biden's first term through July 16, 2024

• 2021 28.47%
• 2022. -18.01%
• 2023        24%
• 2024        19% (through 16 July 2024)

Stay tuned. This post will be updated as time goes by. The future has not been created yet and the market continues its up and downs. It is unknown whether the stock market will perform better under Biden or worse. For example, today, July 17, 2024, the S&P 500 suffered significant losses.  Pundits attribute the losses to three factors: (i) Biden's administration proposed ban on chip exports to China; Trump's comments against Taiwan, stating that Taiwan needs to pay the US for its defense; and (iii) profit taking on Wall Street after record gains on account of the AI boom / bubble. 

On good news for Creatix, NVIDIA's stock got such a well-deserved beating that we are finally up on our short position. As previously reported in multiple posts, we have been shorting NVIDIA for a while after concluding that NVIDIA is the poster child of the AI bubble. In the last two days, NVIDIA's stock has lost so much that we are finally up on our short position. We are up only by 1%, but that is better than being down. We are being greedy, and we are not exiting the position yet. We are speculating that NVIDIA will do down more to maybe about $100 per share. Will see. The future has not been created yet. We're all in this together, creating it. 

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