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Is NVIDIA's mini AI bubble already deflating?

September 15, 2023

Yes, NVIDIA's mini bubble is already deflating. NVIDIA corporation was the biggest beneficiary of the first mini AI financial bubble caused by the rollout of chatbots like ChatGPT and Bard. NVIDIA manufactures paralleled processing chips suitable to power the neural networks behind machine learning algorithms and generative AI applications. NVIDIA got a head start in the game, but rivals are already catching up. Moreover, the initial euphoria about chatbots is quickly dissipating as people get used to either using the bots or ignoring them altogether. 

In 2019, prior to the COVID19 pandemic, NVIDIA's stock price hovered at around $50. About a month ago, NVIDIA stock was priced at almost $500. Most of this tenfold increase occurred in the first nine months of 2023. From January 1st, 2023 through August 31, 2023, NVIDIA's stock increased in price from about $140 to about $500. This was due to the AI mini bubble that began at the beginning of this year with the release of ChatGPT. 

ChatGPT, or Chat Generative Pre-trained Transformer, was launched as a prototype on November 30, 2022. The chatbot was developed by OpenAI, an AI research company. ChatGPT allows users to control the length, format, style, and language of a conversation. It can generate human-like essays, poems, and answers to almost any question. OpenAI released a paid version of ChatGPT 4. 

ChatGPT's debut was revolutionary. Many assumed that the AI Skynet-type "takeover of the world" was already here. By now, most people have realized that AI is like the internet. It will definitely change everything and continue growing and expanding. However, there is no reason to lose sanity about it or create another dot.com bubble. 

On August 31, 2023 we shorted $10k in NVDIA stock to put our money where our mouth was. The call is 5% up, meaning that the NVIDIA stock bubble has deflated 5% in the first two weeks of September. Our prediction is minus 30% within the next six months. By March 2024, all chip manufacturers will be on their way to catching up to NVIDIA, and chatbots like ChatGPT and Google Bard will be widely used by more and more users. 

AI will definitely "take over" the world, but not in the apocalyptic way of some science fiction stories. AI will "take over" the world in the same way that computers and the internet already took it over. AI can be seen as the third phase of the Digital Information Age (DIA). AI will continue growing, expanding, and disrupting everything. Technology companies will keep changing everything. Whatever is more convenient will prevail. In the world of intelligence, be it organic or artificial, whatever is more convenient always prevails. 

The economic growth of AI, just like the prior economic growth of computers and the internet, will not mean that every company with AI exposure will experience a tenfold increase in valuation every three years. NVIDIA' s valuation increase in the last three years, and specifically in the last first nine months of 2023 was a market overreaction. We think that there is a market correction underway, which will reduce NVIDIA's valuation by at least 30% from the almost $500 peak within the next six months. 

What do you think?

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